Prograis is a two-time super welterweight world champion, but has fallen down the pecking order at 140lbs after successive defeats by Devin Haney and Jack Catterall.

Now aged 36 and over nine months on from his last fight, questions have been asked over how much Prograis has left.

Ahead of his return to action, let’s assess whether he can get back in the title picture with a much-needed win over Diaz.

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What threat will Diaz pose?

Diaz won 32 of his first 34 professional fights, and had just one loss and a draw on his record at that point.

He has struggled in recent years, though, suffering six defeats in his last seven contests.

However, it should be highlighted that he has faced some high-quality opposition during this disappointing run.

Diaz was outpointed by ex-champions Haney and William Zepeda, while he was knocked out by Oscar Duarte last year, who will top the bill tonight when he faces Kenneth Sims Jr.

That is Diaz’s only stoppage loss in his 41 fights, demonstrating how he is a durable boxer who is difficult to break down.

If Prograis can take him out inside the distance, it would be a major statement.

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How has Prograis performed recently?

Having lost his last two fights in his mid-thirties, Prograis could have easily walked away from the sport.

In his loss to Haney in December 2023, Prograis simply never got going. He was knocked down in the third round and could not cope with his opponent’s superior skills.

But Prograis did look better in his points defeat by Catterall last time out. There was very little to separate the pair early on, and Prograis then scored a knockdown in the fifth round.

Catterall bounced back to send Prograis to the canvas twice in the ninth and eventually ran out a comfortable winner on the scorecards.

While he was unable to reach the same level as his peak years when he went toe-to-toe with Josh Taylor in a fight of the year contender back in 2019, Prograis looked far from shot against Catterall and that should give him belief that he still has plenty to offer.

Who are the current world champions at 140lbs?

There are four different champions in the super welterweight division. Teofimo Lopez is the standout name and currently holds the WBO and The Ring belts.

Meanwhile, Richardson Hitchins has the IBF title, Gary Antuanne Russell is the WBA champion and Subriel Matias was crowned WBC king last month.

With so many titlists operating at 140lbs, there should be no shortage of opportunities for challengers in the near future.

This is good news for Prograis who still harbours ambitions of getting championship gold wrapped around his waist for a third time.

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Is Prograis next in line for a title shot?

Due to his recent form, Prograis is not currently in the mix to fight for a world title.

He is outside The Ring’s top 10 super welterweights and is not inside the top 15 with any of the governing bodies.

But getting back to winning ways tonight would give Prograis a confidence boost and allow him to start building some momentum.

It is also helpful that three of the four world champions at 140lbs are fellow Americans, meaning it should not be too difficult for a potential matchup to be made.

One win is unlikely to land Prograis a title shot, but it will be a starting point as he looks to get a final crack at becoming a champion again.

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Would another loss spell the end for Prograis?

It is hard to see how Prograis would bounce back if he falls short against Diaz.

If he is anywhere near his best, he should beat someone of Diaz’s calibre, who has consistently lost when facing top-level opponents.

Time is not on Prograis’ side, and he cannot afford another slip-up.

Of course, he would have the final say on whether he wants to continue after tonight’s fight, but losing to Diaz would signal that Prograis is no longer the world-class fighter he once was and that he may be better off calling time on his hugely successful career.

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